Steve Jobs leaves behind deep bench of talent at Apple

Steve Jobs is the man. As the public face of Apple, the revered visionary and sometimes enfant terrible has shown an ability to dream up, fine-tune, orchestrate and then unleash game-changing technology on the world.

The announcement that he's taken a third medical leave of absence in his ongoing battle with cancer now prompts the question: What sort of Apple does he leave behind?

Beginning with Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook, who will once again take over the reins, as he did when Jobs took a six-month leave to have a liver transplant in 2009, Jobs has put in place a deep bench of talent. Top executives such as design guru Jonathan Ive, Apple store creator Ron Johnson and software wizard Scott Forstall have collaborated closely to give Apple its bleeding-edge product line, its soaring stock price, its spit and its polish.

Most observers say Apple is on firm footing for the foreseeable future. They include industry analysts, academics and the scores of investors who swooped in Tuesday to shore up Apple shares beaten up after initial word of Jobs' medical leave.

But there are others, including former employees and consultants who have seen the Jobs magic up close, who now worry about the long-term prospects of an Apple without a leader who can seemingly peek around the next bend and give customers devices they didn't even realize we needed.

"Steve Jobs has obviously been an iconic leader in marketing and innovation and he always

had a stiff operating hand," said Barry Jaruzelski, management consultant at Booz & Co. "But I think those same skills that have made Apple so great over the decades have been institutionalized. Jobs is a symbol of them, but those capabilities are still there; they're not just the vision of one iconic individual." The team is in place

Yet a former Apple consultant, who has worked closely with Jobs and his inner circle on numerous advertising campaigns, said that while the company should be fine in the short term without Jobs, the picture further out is much cloudier.

"His absence does worry me," said the consultant, who asked that his name not be used. "The reason Apple is so successful is because of what Jobs does and doesn't do. What he turns down is as important as what he approves. I'd see him do that on a daily basis -- 'Let's do this, but not that.' "

Jobs, he said, "has this ability to look forward and really see what trends are coming. The management team in place will not be able to do that."

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said Jobs was "irreplaceable and a visionary that no one can touch. But they have people who can come close to Steve Jobs. The collective bench can do a lot of things Steve Jobs does. The key four, five guys -- they all share the same value Steve Jobs has, which is high-integrity products and simplicity. I think Apple will continue to be phenomenally successful," even without Jobs. "But it would be even better with him. He's a cross between Henry Ford and Willy Wonka."

From Cook, the admired COO who will assume responsibilities for day-to-day operations, to his marketing chief Philip Schiller, to Apple's creative legend and top designer Jonathan "Jony" Ive, the company is in good hands, according to most observers.

"We believe Tim Cook is a proven operator and very capable of managing Apple's day-to-day operations," Chris Whitmore at Deutsche Bank Equity Research wrote in a report Tuesday. He said Apple's "product road map for the next 12 months is largely set and Cook will ensure crisp execution on that road map."

Cook, who had already effectively been manning the day-to-day operations at Apple even while Jobs was on the job, will have plenty of help. Schiller, senior vice president of worldwide product marketing, has played a key role in the company's much-vaunted advertising and marketing campaigns that have ensured Apple products a place not just in the retail hit parade, but in the annals of tech history.

As senior vice president of industrial design, Ive has held center stage for Apple's parade of new launches. The longtime Apple veteran is the guy behind the mesmerizing smorgasbord of Apple gadgets. And Eddy Cue, vice president of Internet services, has been instrumental in helping Jobs work out thorny negotiations with the music companies, movie studios and publishers whose by-product comes streaming out of Apple's products.

Add in Scott Forstall, senior vice president of iPhone software, who spearheaded Apple's new mobile operating system that's in use on the iPhone, iPod touch, iPad and now the Apple TV; Bob Mansfield, senior vice president of Mac hardware engineering; and Bertrand Serlet, senior vice president of software engineers, and the team that Jobs put in place seems ready for anything.

Product pipeline set

Although Jobs' leave "creates uncertainty," said Peter Misek, an analyst for Jefferies & Co., "we believe the product pipeline is set for the next two years and Apple's bench strength has come through before."

Analyst Tim Bajarin agreed: "Even with Steve not there for the day-to-day, they won't skip a beat."

"Ron Johnson, one of the best minds in retail, is running the Apple stores; Peter Oppenheimer is running their financial side," Bajarin added. "Schiller's brilliant in marketing. And Ive is legendary in the areas of design and design integration.

"Even if Jobs takes an extended leave of absence, the company will move forward. And since the products that will be introduced this year and next and even in 2013 have already been on the drawing board for years and have met with Jobs' approval, any impact on the company from his absence won't be seen, in the short-term at least."

Staff writers John Boudreau and Troy Wolverton contributed to this report. Contact Patrick May at 408-920-5689. Follow him at Twitter.com/patmaymerc.

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Apple's Steve Jobs likely stricken with one of two conditions, experts say

Medical experts say there are two likely reasons why patients such as Apple CEO Steve Jobs, with pancreatic cancer and a new liver, need time off: complications from the transplant or recurrence of the tumor.

In announcing his indefinite medical leave from Apple, Jobs offered no details about his condition. But his gaunt appearance and cryptic message, which offered no return date, has triggered worried speculation.

Doctors reiterated that Jobs' rare type of disease, called neuroendocrine cancer, is known to be slow-growing and even treatable. And complications related to liver transplants, such as infection and duct blockage, can often be fixed. But both pose substantial lifelong risk.

"The worst thing, in our mind, would be recurrence of the tumor," said Dr. Simon Lo, director of the pancreatic disease program at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, who has not treated Jobs and has no direct information about his diagnosis.

"But even if it recurs, it could be slow in progressing," he added.

There is relatively little data on long-term survival of patients such as Jobs, but statistics suggest that about half of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine cancers who receive liver transplants live for five years. Individual outcomes may vary, based on the subtype of tumor.

"Those are pretty good odds," said Lo.

In 2004, Jobs disclosed that he had been diagnosed with this rare form of pancreatic cancer and

had been treated with surgery -- and told he was cured.

Five years later, he had his liver removed and received a transplant, indicating that the cancer had metastasized. The liver is the most common place for pancreatic cancers to spread, because blood flows from one organ to the other.

According to a report by University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill abdominal transplant surgeon David Gerber, liver metastases are the main cause of death for patients with this type of cancer -- so a transplant can significantly prolong survival.

But transplants pose their own risks, particularly with cancer patients.

That's because the immunosuppressant drugs needed to prevent rejection make the body less able to fend off infections or new malignancies.

Moreover, if any tiny pockets of cancer cells remain, hidden, the introduction of these immunosuppressant drugs can cause them to flare up, Dr. Anthony Heaney, an endocrinologist at UCLA's Ronald Reagan Medical Center, told The Los Angeles Times. So transplants are performed only if doctors believe the cancer is completely gone.

Fortunately, drug treatment is generally not as rigorous for liver patients as it is for patients receiving other organs. Some liver transplant patients can even be safely weaned off medicines, according to longtime transplant surgeon Oscar Salvatierra of Stanford University's School of Medicine.

Yet other postsurgical transplant problems may be encountered, said Lo, such as blockage of a duct. That happens when the liver is removed; scar tissue may form and prevent bile from flowing properly. Surgery can also cause adhesions, or "kinks," in the digestive system.

And there is always the risk that the organ will be rejected, although that recedes with time. There are few reported cases of cancer patients who receive second livers after the first one is rejected.

Finally, patients who have lost their pancreas may have hormonal problems, altering how the body secretes substances like insulin.

If a tumor has reappeared in a different part of the body -- typically, the abdomen -- it can be treated with surgery, particularly if it is localized and large, according to Lo and Dr. Waldo Concepcion, a Stanford University transplant expert. In this circumstance, levels of immunosuppressant drugs would be adjusted. And a new medicine would be introduced, to attack the malignant cells.

"The whole idea is to control the spread," said Lo.

Contact Lisa M. Krieger at 408-920-5565.

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